Sử dụng chỉ số Moving Averages trong giao dịch Quyền chọn Nhị phân

Moving Averages (viết tắt là MA) có thể dịch là trung bình động là chỉ số được sử dụng phổ biến trong phân tích kỹ thuật. Đây là một chỉ số đơn giản thuộc nhóm chỉ số theo sau xu hướng giúp nhà đầu tư có thể dễ dàng nhìn ra xu hướng thị trường là làm cơ sở cho các chỉ số phân tích khác như Bollinger BandsMACD.

moving averages

Chỉ số Moving Averages là gì?

Cụ thể hơn, chỉ số Moving Averages là giá trung bình của một loại tài sản trong một khoảng thời gian. Bằng cách tính trung bình, giá tài sản sẽ di chuyển trơn hơn loại bỏ các yếu tố nhiễu từ đó giúp nhà đầu tư nhận ra xu hướng giá dễ dàng hơn. Đây là một chỉ số theo sau xu hướng bởi chỉ số này sử dụng các dữ liệu quá khứ nên sẽ có độ trễ nhất định so với xu hướng thật sự của thị trường.

Chỉ số Moving Averages còn chia ra hai loại gồm Simple Moving Averages (SMA) hay trung bình động đơn giản và Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) chỉ số trung bình động mũ. Sự khác nhau giữa hai chỉ số này đó là chỉ EMA sẽ có phản ứng với thị trường nhạy cảm hơn, nhanh hơn so với SMA.

Công thức tính chỉ số Moving Averages

Công thức tính chỉ số SMA với thời gian là 10 ngày.

SMA 10=Tổng giá đóng cửa của 10 ngày/10

Ví dụ: ta có giá đóng cửa của 10 ngày liên tiếp là 20 22 24 25 24 29 27 26 25 27

Như vậy ta có SMA 10 = (20+22+24+25+24+29+27+26+25+27)/10=24.9

Với chỉ số EMA chúng ta cần tính thêm hệ số sức nặng có công thức

a=2/(khoảng thời gian + 1)=2/(10+1)=18.18%

Công thức EMA sẽ là

EMA(hiện tại)=(Giá hiện tại – EMA liền trước)*a+EMA liền trước

Giả sử EMA liền trước của ví dụ trên là 24.49 vậy thì EMA hiện tại sẽ là

EMA=(27-24.49)*0.1818+24.49=24.95

Sử dụng chỉ số MA

Như đã đề cập, các chỉ số MA sẽ trễ hơn so với thị trường do sử dụng các dữ liệu quá khứ, khoảng thời gian càng dài thì độ trễ càng lớn. Chỉ số MA 200 ngày chắc chắn sẽ trễ hơn rất nhiều hơn với chỉ số MA 20 ngày bởi nó tính cả giá của 200 ngày trước đó. Việc quyết định khoảng thời gian dài hay ngắn phụ thuộc vào mục tiêu giao dịch của nhà đầu tư. Với nhà đầu tư dài hạn thì sẽ sử dụng thời gian dài và nhà đầu tư ngắn hạn thì sử dụng thời gian ngắn.

Chỉ số MA có thể tự thân là một gợi ý về xu hướng của thị trường tuy nhiên nhà đầu tư có thể sử dụng thêm một đường MA khác để dễ dự đoán hơn. Thông thường hai đường MA sẽ có một đường ngắn hạn và một đường dài hạn. Khi đường MA ngắn hạn vượt qua đường MA dài hạn có nghĩa rằng thị trường đang có xu hướng tăng trở lại, ngược lại khi đường MA ngắn hạn cắt xuống dưới đường MA dài hạn thì thị trường đang có xu hướng giảm.

Sử dụng chỉ số Moving Averages trong giao dịch Quyền chọn Nhị phân
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